Reading MH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MH free→Reading MH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MH free→NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, and management's track record is stable. The company is capital-friendly, but risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and it trades above typical compared to peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 MH trades at 6× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$19. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.47 (+2.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 34.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$490.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,835.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 19.7 points (from 50.3 to 70.0).
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 12, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, moving from an elevated level. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the market environment.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 11, 2026 , McGraw Hill, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “fil…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$14.00 – $19.00 (median $17.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Education Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MH McGraw Hill, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC | — | — | elevated |
DUOL Duolingo | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | moderate |
GHC Graham Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Management has revised the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance upwards.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $1,986M-$2,046M to $2,031M-$2,061M, reflecting management's confidence in growth. However, actual revenue in 2026-Q4 was $463.7M, indicating limited progress towards the higher annual target.
“Strong results support an upward revision to fiscal year 2026 guidance.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance - Prior Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance - Updated As of August 14, 2025 As of November 12, 2025 ($ in millions) Low High Low High Revenue $ 1,986 $ 2,046 $ 2,031 $ 2,061”
“FY26 Guidance Low High Revenue $1,986 $2,046”
Focus on maintaining strong cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations decreased from $308.97M in 2026-Q3 to -$146.12M in 2026-Q4, indicating a significant decline. This suggests limited progress in maintaining strong cash flow, contrary to management's stated priority.
“Management emphasized maintaining strong cash from operations.”
“Management emphasized maintaining strong cash from operations.”
Other Events On June 2, 2026, the Company’s board of directors approved a share repurchase plan whereby, from time to time, the Company may repurchase up to $50.0 million of the Company’s common stock.