Reading MDLZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDLZ free→Reading MDLZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDLZ free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, MDLZ is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $62.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $64–$73. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.68 → $0.68 (-0.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,593.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key measure of Mondelez's performance. A drop below 2% could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Q2 Organic Net Revenue growth reported below 2%.
Disproves:Q2 Organic Net Revenue growth reported above 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDLZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , we issued a press release announcing earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. This information, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section and it will not be incorporated…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$64.00 – $73.00 (median $69.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GIS General Mills | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims for Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2% for 2026.
The company expects Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026.
The company aims for Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis for 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for returning capital to shareholders. A drop could impact future investments.
Confirms:Free Cash Flow reported below $3 billion.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow reported at or above $3 billion.
Why it matters: Stable costs can help margins and profits. This is important for Mondelez's finances.
Confirms:Commodity prices are showing signs of stability or going down.
Disproves:Commodity prices are still rising a lot.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how much money a company makes. If it is below 5%, costs may be too high.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth reported below 5%.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth reported above 5%.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information described below under “
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement In connection with entry into the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement described below under “
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off ‑ Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement On February 18, 2026, we entered into a revolving credit agreement (the “364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement”) for a 364‑day senior unsecured revolving credit facility in an aggregate principal amount of $1.5 billion with the lenders named in the 364‑Day Revolving Credit Agreement, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. Under t…
Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Luca Zaramella: Luca Zaramella was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in addition to his existing role as CFO.