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MCK
McKesson CorporationNYSEHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$784.05-0.40%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If MCK cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Distribution
- Market cap
- $94.27B
- Employees
- 43,000
- IPO date
- 1995-02-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $784.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$797.05consensus
Range $747.53 – $899.42
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1140.61consensus
Range $1133.87 – $1280.13
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $784 MCK trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $797 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $875–$1,085. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.0x
peer 19.1x · own history 18.9x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$797.05
range $747.53 – $900.30
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
99th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
41st pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral14 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $9.56 → $9.66 (+1.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,717.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for news on fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance shows strong growth and good operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance confirmed within the range of $43.80 to $44.60.
Disproves:Guidance lowered below $43.80. This shows weaker growth expectations.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COR, CAH, and HSIC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting MCK and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MCK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MCK and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If MCK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COR, CAH, and HSIC start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping MCK and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026, certain of McKesson Corporation’s (the “Company”) subsidiaries, including McKesson Medical-Surgical Top Holdings, Inc. (the “Borrower”), entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement , dated as of April 1, 2026, among, the Borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (as so amended, the “Credit Agreement”), to provide for a $2,…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.