Reading MAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAN free→Reading MAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAN free→NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If MAN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 MAN trades at 12× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $66 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $33–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.71x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.95 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -10.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$526.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,223.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.72 per share on June 15, 2026.
Disproves:The company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 8, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a semi-annual dividend of $0.72 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 1, 2026. The press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$33.00 – $45.00 (median $34.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-17
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAN ManpowerGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to boost gross profit through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Increasing gross profit shows the company is managing costs and growing revenue.
Confirms:Gross profit increases year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Gross profit decreases year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Growth in the sector can affect ManpowerGroup's performance and outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 8% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows further below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows confidence in future earnings despite cash flow issues.
Confirms:The company maintains the $0.72 dividend per share in the next announcement.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout in the next announcement.
of Form 8-K. Consequently, such information is not deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Further, the information in this Item 2.02, including exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the registrant under the Securities Act of 1933. On April 16, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our results of operations for the three months ended March…
Shareholders approved an amendment to the equity incentive plan.