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LYB
LyondellBasellNYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$64.58+1.75%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $20.54B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2010-10-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-31
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
—
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
34th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.26x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish14 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.22 → $3.23 (+0.2% / 30d). 10 raised, 4 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$478.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,544.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 EBITDA to improve a lot because of market conditions.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA shows good cost management and strong demand. This can boost investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 EBITDA rises above $600 million. This shows less supply and better pricing.
Disproves:Q2 EBITDA stays under $568 million. This shows ongoing market problems.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LYB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and ECL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting LYB and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LYB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LYB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and ECL start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping LYB and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LYB and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, certain subsidiaries of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment to the Company’s structured accounts receivables facility originated in September 2012 (the “Receivables Facility”) pursuant to an Eighth Amendment to Receivables Purchase Agreement, effective as of June 26, 2026, among Lyondell Chemical Company, as servicer, LYB Receivables LLC, a bankruptcy-remote special purpose entity that is a wholl…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.