Reading LUNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUNR free→Reading LUNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUNR free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 131% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact LUNR's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 LUNR trades at 8× p/s — 2.2× the 4× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $12 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $27–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 123% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.81x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.09 (-189.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$524.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$956.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,194.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Stock crash indicates potential operational or market issues.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sales Agreement In connection with Intuitive Machines, Inc.’s (the “Company”) Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-296442) (the “Registration Statement”), which became effective on June 2, 2026, which included a base prospectus and a prospectus supplement relating to the offer and sale, from time to time through the Agents (as defined below), of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, for aggregate gros…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$27.00 – $75.00 (median $38.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | expensive | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on securing strategic contracts to drive revenue growth.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to enhance cash flow from operations through better working capital management.