Reading LRCX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LRCX free→Reading LRCX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LRCX free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If LRCX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $366.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $367 LRCX trades at 69× p/e, in line with its 62× p/e peer median. Our $347 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $255–$575. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.67 (+0.0% / 30d). 24 raised, 0 cut, 27 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.7% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$228.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$506.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,001.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose to "full." Risk is elevated. Earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a tailwind. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong demand in the AI market.
Confirms:Revenue reported at $6.6 billion or higher for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Disproves:Revenue reported below $6.2 billion for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LRCX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this item of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$255.00 – $575.00 (median $331.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TER Teradyne | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 5 guided quarters · -88.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Lam Research aims to achieve a revenue target of $6.6 billion for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Lam Research aims to sustain a gross margin of approximately 50.5% in the upcoming quarter.
Lam Research targets an operating margin of 36.5% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Why it matters: This margin shows good management of costs and strong profits.
Confirms:Operating margin was 36.5% or higher for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Disproves:Operating margin was below 35.0% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal broader challenges for Lam Research.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below its usual average.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is above its usual average.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and pricing power in a tough market.
Confirms:Gross margin reported at 50.5% or higher for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 49.5% for the quarter ending June 28, 2026.
Chief Operating Officer — Patrick J. Lord, Ph.D.: Dr. Patrick J. Lord is retiring from his position as Chief Operating Officer after two decades with the company.
Chief Operating Officer — Patrick J. Lord, Ph.D.: Dr. Patrick J. Lord is retiring from his position as Chief Operating Officer after two decades with the company.
of Form 8-K dated September 11, 2025, of Lam Research Corporation and are in agreement with the statements contained in the first sentence in the first paragraph and the second, third and fourth paragraphs on page 1 therein. We have no basis to agree or disagree with other statements of the registrant contained therein. /s/ Ernst & Young LLP