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LITE
LumentumNASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$921.56+3.59%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, LITE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 286% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If LITE cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $67.91B
- Employees
- 10,562
- IPO date
- 2015-09-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-12
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $921.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$238.59consensus
Range $218.18 – $243.27
vs price: +286% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$124.60consensus
Range $124.60 – $124.60
vs price: +640% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $922, LITE's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 36× p/s (10.2× the 3× p/s peer median, and 9.3× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~286% near-term growth vs our ~44% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $239 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $520–$1,270. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
35.6x
peer 3.5x · own history 3.8x
Premium
10.2x peer
9.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
286%
our forecast 44%
Our fair value
$238.59
range $218.18 – $243.27
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 286% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 44%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
100th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
21st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish20 analysts, 79% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $2.96. 18 raised, 0 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$446.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$858.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,870.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for Q4 revenue guidance below $960 million
Why it matters: Guidance below this level would indicate weaker demand and growth prospects.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management expects Q4 revenue to be less than $960 million.
Disproves:Management expects Q4 revenue to be more than $1.01 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LITE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for LITE and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and HPE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting LITE and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LITE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LITE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and HPE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping LITE and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0112d agoItem 3.02
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On May 29, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) entered into separate privately-negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain holders of its outstanding 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”), pursuant to which the Company will deliver an aggregate of approximately 5.0 million shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”) in exchange for approximately $650.4 millio…
Capital allocationnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.