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LGN
Legence Corp.NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
$86.00+1.03%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 413% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence LGN's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Market cap
- $13.98B
- Employees
- 7,000
- IPO date
- 2025-08-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$16.78consensus
Range $16.38 – $51.25
vs price: +412% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
low confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for LGN right now, so treat our $17 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $60–$125. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
412%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$16.78
range $16.38 – $51.93
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
$60.00 – $125.00 (median $90.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 412% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
80th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +48.5% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.33 (+48.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$693.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,140.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LGN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting LGN and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LGN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LGN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping LGN and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LGN and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-112d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Legence Corp. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) on June 11, 2026. At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the Legence Corp. 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (the “ESPP”), which had been previously approved by the Company’s Board of Directors, subject to stockholder approval. The…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.