Reading KMX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track KMX free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with KMX compared to sector peers below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 KMX trades at 32× p/e — 2.0× the 16× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $67 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $26–$48. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.65 (+2.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -18.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 59.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$401.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,685.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CarMax is getting stronger financially.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better revenue and profit than last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows declining revenue or profit margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KMX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 3, 2026, Jill Livesay, the Vice President, Controller and Principal Accounting Officer of CarMax, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of her plan to retire from the Company effective as of the close of business on July 31, 2026. Ms. Livesay’s decision to retire is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $48.00 (median $41.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KMX CarMax, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CarMax aims to achieve $200 million in SG&A exit rate savings by the end of fiscal year 2027.
CarMax is focused on enhancing its digital capabilities to support retail unit sales.
CarMax aims to strengthen its financial position through strategic capital allocation.
CarMax aims to drive SG&A efficiency with a target of $150 million in reductions over 18 months.
Why it matters: Management has stressed cost control but has shown little improvement. This is key for future profits.
Confirms:Operating income improves from -$110.68M in Q4 to above -$50M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls more or stays under -$110.68M in Q2.
Why it matters: CarMax is not managing costs well. Better progress could help make more money.
Confirms:Management shares a clear plan to cut costs and work better.
Disproves:No news on cost management or more delays in plans.
Why it matters: Better digital tools are important for CarMax's growth.
Confirms:Management will share new plans or partnerships. These will help improve digital services.
Disproves:No news or progress on digital improvements.
Why it matters: Fluctuating cash flow shows challenges in financial health. Stable cash flow is crucial for growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations rises to over $500M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays negative or under -$554.27M in Q2.
Why it matters: New economic data may change how much consumers spend. This is key for CarMax's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% on June 17.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0.5% on June 17.
Why it matters: Management wants to make digital services better. This could boost sales and attract customers.
Confirms:Management shares a new digital plan with clear goals in Q2.
Disproves:No news or progress on digital plans in Q2.
Why it matters: Inflation data affects how much consumers spend and CarMax's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows lower inflation, which helps consumer confidence and spending.
Confirms the other:CPI shows rising inflation, which leads to less consumer spending.
Director — Shira Goodman, Mitchell Steenrod, Robert T. O’Shaughnessy: Two directors are retiring and a new director is being added to the Board.