Reading KMPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KMPR free→Reading KMPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KMPR free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 KMPR trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $66 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $28–$48. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 11.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.85 → $0.34 (-59.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$377.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,397.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Kemper can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report on August 5 shows a profit improvement from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report on August 5 shows another earnings miss.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KMPR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President and Chief Executive Officer — Stephen J. McAnena: Appointment of a new CEO from outside the company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$28.00 – $48.00 (median $44.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-line Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KMPR Kemper Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AIG American International Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
L Loews Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | low |
AIZ Assurant | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFG American Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Kemper aims to reduce its borrowing capacity from $600 million to $350 million.
Kemper has appointed a new CEO, Stephen J. McAnena, from outside the company.
Kemper is focused on addressing the earnings miss reported in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies may impact Kemper's direction and performance. Investors will watch for early signs of change.
Confirms one read:The new CEO shares a plan. This plan may improve the company's outlook.
Confirms the other:The new CEO does not provide a clear plan. This causes ongoing uncertainty.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan will show how Kemper will address its challenges and growth.
Confirms:A press release will explain the new CEO's plans in three months.
Disproves:No announcement or vague plans from the new CEO within three months.
Why it matters: Kemper can borrow less money now. This may limit how it manages finances. Investors will watch how this affects operations.
Confirms:Kemper manages operations well with the new borrowing limit. There are no disruptions.
Disproves:Kemper has problems or cash issues because it can borrow less money.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if Kemper can recover from its recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms one read:Kemper reports Q2 earnings. Net income is back in the positive.
Confirms the other:Kemper reports another earnings miss. Net income is still negative.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Kemper Corporation ("Kemper" or the "Registrant") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and the availability of Kemper’s first quarter investor supplement and earnings call presentation on its website, kemper.com. The press release, the investor supplement and the earnings call presentation are furnished as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, respectively, to this report. Section 9. – Fin…
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, Kemper Corporation (“Kemper”) delivered notice to JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., in its capacity as administrative agent under the Company’s Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated March 15, 2022 (the “Credit Agreement”), pursuant to which Kemper reduced the total borrowing capacity available under the Credit Agreement from $600 million to $350 million effective May 4, 2026. Following this reduction in borrowing capacity, Kemper considers its available…