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KDP
Keurig Dr PepperNASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$31.71+1.54%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact KDP's performance compared to its peers, where it is priced typically. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-alcoholic
- Market cap
- $43.13B
- Employees
- 30,600
- IPO date
- 2008-06-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$35.56consensus
Range $21.12 – $36.81
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$55.42consensus
Range $36.42 – $63.64
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $32 KDP trades at 16× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $28–$38. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.7x
peer 17.6x · own history 18.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-11%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$35.56
range $21.24 – $36.81
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
58th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
25th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral13 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.54 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,748.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 U.S. Coffee segment revenue decline
Why it matters: A decline in U.S. Coffee revenue would signal ongoing challenges in this key area.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:U.S. Coffee segment revenue decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:U.S. Coffee segment revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KDP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If KDP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for KDP and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If KDP beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +5% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If KDP cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KO, PEP, and MNST start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), KDP and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2222d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on March 26, 2026, Maple Parent Holdings Corp. (“ Maple ”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ KDP ”), completed private offerings of €3.0 billion aggregate principal amount of euro denominated notes and $2.55 billion aggregate principal amount of USD denominated notes (collectively, the “ Maple Notes ”), which are guaranteed by the Company and certain of its subsidiaries (the “ KDP Guarantors ”). In addition, on Mar…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.