Reading JXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JXN free→Reading JXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JXN free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with JXN trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If JXN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $108.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $109 JXN trades at 5× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $266 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -18.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.89 → $5.47 (-7.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$367.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,631.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% over the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 12%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JXN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deeme…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JXN Jackson Financial, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
The company aims to achieve at least $1.2 billion in Free Cash Flow for the fiscal year 2026.
The company has set a capital return target to common shareholders of $900 million to $1.1 billion for 2026.
The company remains committed to helping Americans achieve financial security throughout 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key to meeting the $1.2B target for 2026. Investors will focus on this number.
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow was over $300M. This shows strong cash generation.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow reported below $200M, raising concerns about cash generation.
Why it matters: Capital return is a priority. Updates on the $900M-$1.1B target will show financial health.
Confirms:Announcement of a capital return plan that meets or exceeds the $900M target.
Disproves:No updates were given during Q2 earnings. The capital return target is lower.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth impacts JXN's performance. A drop below median signals trouble.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still above the median. This shows continued strength.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data affects how much people spend. It also impacts financial performance.
Confirms one read:A big drop in claims shows a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Claims increase, suggesting a weakening job market.