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Johnson & JohnsonNYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$240.87+1.07%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, JNJ is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- Market cap
- $573.71B
- Employees
- 140,800
- IPO date
- 1944-09-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-15
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $240.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$133.29consensus
Range $126.59 – $150.05
vs price: +81% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$214.27consensus
Range $145.95 – $237.37
vs price: +12% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $241 JNJ trades at 24× p/e — 1.8× the 13× p/e peer median, and above its own 17× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $133 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $250–$283. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.7x
peer 12.8x · own history 16.8x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
81%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$133.29
range $126.56 – $150.05
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 81% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
84th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
29th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral16 analysts, 63% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.84 → $2.85 (+0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme AI-drug-discovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$149.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,096.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance increase to $100.8B
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth momentum for Johnson & Johnson.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms Q2 revenue guidance raised to $100.8B or higher.
Disproves:Management expects revenue to be less than $100.8B.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1350m agoYahoo! Finance
Acquisition supports growth strategy and revenue objectives.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like LLY, ABBV, and MRK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting JNJ and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for JNJ and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If JNJ reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-14), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like LLY, ABBV, and MRK start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping JNJ and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If JNJ misses again next quarter like this past one (a miss of -6% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of operations and financial condition On April 14, 2026, Johnson & Johnson issued the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1) announcing its sales and earnings for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.