Reading JAZZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAZZ free→Reading JAZZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAZZ free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust, and management's track record has been steady. However, the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, JAZZ is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $230.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $231 JAZZ trades at 18× p/e — 1.4× the 13× p/e peer median, and above its own 9× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $168 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $224–$307. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 37% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 45.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.12 → $6.18 (+0.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 4 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$262.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,142.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Steady growth in Xywav sales is key for revenue. It shows strong market demand.
Confirms:Xywav revenue growth exceeds 18% YoY in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Xywav revenue growth falls below 15% YoY in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Advance pipeline and regulatory activities
Failed trial impacts pipeline advancement and regulatory activities.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Class III director — Anne O’Riordan: Ms. O'Riordan will not stand for re-election as a Class III director.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$224.00 – $307.00 (median $242.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on advancing the pipeline and regulatory activities, including the potential launch of zanidatamab in 1L GEA.
Continue efforts to increase revenue growth through strong commercial execution across franchises.
Focus on enhancing cash from operations to support business performance and financial discipline.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Approval would help Jazz grow. It would also boost sales from zanidatamab in the HER2+ GEA market.
Confirms:FDA approval of zanidatamab for 1L HER2+ GEA on or before August 25, 2026.
Disproves:FDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond August 25, 2026.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows Jazz is keeping costs low. This is important for making money long-term.
Confirms:Operating income was over $300M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was under $200M in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show Jazz is on track with its growth goals. Investors want to see strong revenue growth to support the company's initiatives.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More cash from operations supports Jazz's investments. This shows the company is improving its financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $450M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $400M in Q2.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and performance. Investors need to understand how this affects Jazz.
Confirms one read:A new director has been announced. They have relevant experience and a strong record.
Confirms the other:No new director was named. A director with little experience was picked.
and in the Press Release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained in this