Reading IRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRM free→Reading IRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRM free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact, priced roughly in line with peers, with steady recent financials and earnings quality. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact IRM's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $127.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $127, IRM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 57× p/e (3.2× the 18× p/e peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~19% near-term growth vs our ~22% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $107 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $127–$140. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 19% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.56 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$300.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,515.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth momentum. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for the full year. It is now higher than estimates.
Disproves:Management keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IRM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Iron Mountain Incorporated, or the Company, issued an earnings press release and supplemental financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In addition, the Company will be using a slide presentation during its earnings conference call. Copies of the earnings press release, slide presentation and supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, respectively, hereto and posted on th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$127.00 – $140.00 (median $130.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Iron Mountain has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026.
Iron Mountain has increased its AFFO per share guidance for 2026.
Iron Mountain continues to maintain its dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: An increase in AFFO guidance indicates better cash flow. This can support dividend payments.
Confirms:Management raises AFFO per share guidance. It is now above current estimates.
Disproves:Management lowers guidance for AFFO per share.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could signal a turnaround in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is below 0%. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company continues to grow after the recent earnings beat.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.70, indicating strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is under $0.50. This shows weakness in operations.