Reading IPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPI free→Reading IPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPI free→NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is full, priced roughly in line with peers, with steady recent financials and earnings quality. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 IPI trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.38 (+65.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$244.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$540.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,667.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label changing from "fair" to "full." Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop was noted as a headwind. The overall context is provisional, indicating that further developments may affect these dimensions.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in its existing share repurchase program, which was revised to increase the repurchase authorization to up to $50 million of its common stock. As of May 28, 2026 approximately $13.0 million remained available under the prior $35 million program. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
The Board has authorized an increase in the share repurchase program to up to $50 million.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities, which increased significantly in 2026-Q1.