Reading HUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HUM free→Reading HUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HUM free→NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The top factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $369.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $380 HUM trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $306 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $180–$441. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
25 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.51 → $6.97 (+7.1% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 24 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.8% above current price.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$179.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,718.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in earnings despite challenges. It signals strong performance.
Confirms:Humana reaffirms its EPS guidance of at least $9.00 during investor meetings.
Disproves:Humana lowers its EPS guidance to below $9.00 in future reports.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Sale of Gentiva stake enhances capital allocation strategy.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Members of Humana Inc.’s (the “Company”) senior management team are scheduled to meet with investors and analysts at various meetings between June 1, 2026 and June 30, 2026. During these meetings, the Company intends to reaffirm its guidance of at least $8.36 in diluted earnings per common share (“EPS”) or at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share (“Adjusted EPS”), in each case for the year ending December 31, 2026 (“FY 2026”). This guidance is consistent…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$180.00 – $441.00 (median $260.00) · 22 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | elevated |
MOH Molina Healthcare | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Humana aims to maintain its EPS guidance of at least $9.00 for the fiscal year 2026.
Humana raised its FY 2025 revenue guidance to at least $128 billion.
Humana announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can change financial performance and guidance. Bad results may lower earnings expectations.
Confirms:Lawsuit results are good, so management keeps guidance the same.
Disproves:Lawsuit results cause a drop in EPS guidance.
Why it matters: More Medicare Advantage members mean more revenue. It shows how well Humana gets new customers.
Confirms:Membership growth exceeds 25% year over year as projected.
Disproves:Membership growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A successful buyback shows confidence in the company's value. It can help share prices.
Confirms:Humana announces it has finished its share buyback program and shares bought back.
Disproves:Humana stops or cancels the share buyback program without clear reasons.
Why it matters: This outcome affects Humana's quality bonus payments and total revenue. A good ruling could help finances.
Confirms one read:The court rules in favor of Humana on Star Ratings. This allows for possible bonus recovery.
Confirms the other:The court rules against Humana. This confirms the drop in Star Ratings and affects bonus payments.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows growth. This can help investor confidence in the company.
Confirms:Humana announces an increase in FY 2025 revenue guidance to at least $128 billion.
Disproves:Humana keeps FY 2025 revenue guidance under $128 billion, showing slower growth.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also affect share price.
Confirms:Management announces an increase in the share buyback amount or pace.
Disproves:Management stops or cuts the share buyback program.
Earnings beat indicates strong performance towards EPS guidance.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 15, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), pursuant to separate Purchase Agreements, dated May 5, 2026, among Humana Inc. (the “Company”), Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several initial purchasers, and Horseshoe Funding Trust I (the “2036 Trust”) and Horseshoe Funding Trust II (the “2055 Trust” and, together with the 2036 Tr…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On April 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Humana Inc. (the “Company”) expanded its number of authorized directors from ten to eleven and elected Robert S. Field as a director of the Company, in each case effective immediately following the adjournment of the Humana Inc. 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on April 16, 2026. The…