Reading HUBG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HUBG free→
HUBG
Hub Group, Inc.NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$46.38+1.27%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from HUBG and the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX, which could influence HUBG's trajectory. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Market cap
- $2.74B
- Employees
- 6,500
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-06-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$32.03consensus
Range $30.61 – $34.97
vs price: +45% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $46 HUBG trades at 34× p/e — 1.5× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 20× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $32 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
34.1x
peer 23.5x · own history 19.6x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
45%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$32.03
range $30.61 – $34.97
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 45% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
86th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
56th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind-5.5%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$363.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,561.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for the outcome of the Nasdaq delisting notice
Why it matters: The delisting notice could impact Hub Group's stock price and investor confidence. Staying listed is crucial for market access.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Hub Group successfully files its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q by the next deadline.
Disproves:Hub Group fails to file the 10-Q again, leading to an official delisting.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HUBG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting HUBG and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HUBG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-24), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If HUBG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-24), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping HUBG and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits HUBG and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0211d agoItem 5.02
Chief Financial Officer — Kevin Beth: Kevin Beth departed the Company and was replaced by an interim CFO.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.