Reading HTLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTLD free→Reading HTLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTLD free→NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If HTLD cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 HTLD trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $0.00 (+103.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,506.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows ongoing demand issues and problems with operations.
Confirms:Q2 operating revenue falls more than 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 operating revenue declines less than 20% year over year or grows.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HTLD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 23, 2026 , Heartland Express, Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$12.00 – $15.00 (median $12.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | moderate |
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KNX Knight-Swift | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support financial stability and growth.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 operating income improves from last year. This shows less loss.
Disproves:Q2 operating income gets worse or stays negative compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and performance. This could influence investor views.
Confirms one read:New CFO uses cost-saving measures. This leads to better financial results.
Confirms the other:The new CFO does not improve operations. This may hurt financial performance.
Why it matters: A lower operating ratio shows better cost control. It also means smoother operations.
Confirms:Operating ratio drops below 100% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating ratio stays above 101.9% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps keep finances stable. It shows better cash control.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases above $23.2M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $14.9M in Q2.
Why it matters: Less cash from operations can limit investments and raise financial risks.
Confirms:Cash from operations falls below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays above $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows care for shareholders. It can help how investors feel.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.02 in Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.02 in Q2.
President of Millis Transfer — David P. Millis: Mr. David P. Millis retired as President of Millis Transfer but will continue to serve as a director.
The filing details compensation increases and equity awards for named executive officers.