Reading HTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTH free→Reading HTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTH free→NYSEFinancialsFinancial ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from HTH and the performance of sector bellwethers like VOYA, TREE, and RILY. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 the market pays 16× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 17× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $37 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.49 (+16.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$196.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,353.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label rose from "fair" to "full." Risk remains moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:The company announces a quarterly dividend of $0.20 for each share.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout below $0.20 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
. 104 Cover Page Interactive File (formatted as Inline XBRL). SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Hilltop Holdings Inc., a Maryland corporation Date: April 23, 2026 By: /s/ COREY PRESTIDGE Name: Corey G. Prestidge Title: Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Continue to provide a consistent quarterly cash dividend to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operational efficiency to improve cash flow.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal trouble in the financial sector. This could impact overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change the financial plan and operations. This affects performance.
Confirms one read:The new CFO uses a good strategy that improves financial results.
Confirms the other:The CFO change may cause more problems or financial decline.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is managing its money better. This could support future growth.
Confirms:Q2 cash flow from operations increases above $5 million.
Disproves:Q2 cash flow from operations remains below $2 million.
Director — Dana Bober and Stephen Haworth: Two new directors were appointed to the Board of Directors.
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share, payable on May 22, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2026. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other fa…