Reading HRMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRMY free→Reading HRMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRMY free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Healthcare bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 HRMY trades at 11× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.14 → $1.10 (-3.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$344.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,449.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Harmony. A drop below 10% signals trouble in the sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRMY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to drive revenue growth with a focus on achieving 2026 guidance.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means better financial health. It supports growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Confirms:Operating income goes up each quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same each quarter.