Reading HOPE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOPE free→Reading HOPE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOPE free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 HOPE trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 23% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.26 (-1.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,552.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
The signal changed, indicating a mixed outlook. Valuation also changed, moving to a fair assessment.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. A cut would worry investors.
Confirms:The company keeps the quarterly dividend at $0.14 per share as planned.
Disproves:The company cuts or stops the quarterly dividend.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HOPE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Hope Bancorp, Inc. (“HOPE” or the “Company”) issued a news release concerning its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended and as of March 31, 2026. A copy of the April 28, 2026, news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Continue to provide a stable quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through improved operational efficiency.
Aim to improve net income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the sector's growth phase. It affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median of 13% over three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 13%.
Why it matters: More operating income means better efficiency. This can make investors feel more confident. A drop would worry them.
Confirms:Operating income is expected to be over $37.9M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $37.9M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good cost control and growth. A drop could mean problems.
Confirms:Net income reported above $29.5M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $29.5M in the next quarter.
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, the Company issued a news release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per common share. The cash dividend is payable on or about May 22, 2026, to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2026. A copy of the April 28, 2026, news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated herein by reference.