Reading HON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HON free→Reading HON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HON free→NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $220.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $220 HON trades at 26× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $212 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $233–$276. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.42 → $2.42 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Honeywell. Weak growth may signal ongoing challenges.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Acquisitions align with growth and capital allocation objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Honeywell Aerospace Spin-Off On June 5, 2026, the Company announced, in connection with the anticipated spin-off (the “ Spin-Off ”) of the Company’s Aerospace Technologies business into an independent, publicly traded company named “Honeywell Aerospace Inc.” (“ Honeywell Aerospace ”), that the Board has approved a record date of June 15, 2026 (the “ Record Date ”) for the pro rata distribution (the “ Distribution ”) of all of the issued and outstanding shares of Honeywell Aerospa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$233.00 – $276.00 (median $267.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CSW CSW Industrials, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 3.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining revenue growth across business segments.
Maintain free cash flow expectations between $5.3 billion and $5.6 billion.
Target adjusted EPS growth with a range of $10.35 to $10.65 for 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the Aerospace spin-off could impact Honeywell's future structure and financials. It is a major strategic move.
Confirms one read:The date or completion of the Aerospace spin-off will be announced.
Confirms the other:The Aerospace spin-off might be delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Meeting free cash flow expectations is crucial for Honeywell's capital allocation plans. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow in Q2 meets or exceeds $1 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow in Q2 falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS growth is a priority. Weak results may raise concerns about profitability.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth reported below 3% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EPS growth means more profit. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth in Q2 exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth in Q2 is negative year over year.
M&A opportunities align with growth and capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Maintain revenue growth
Targets align with revenue growth strategy post-spinoff.
Independent Director and member of the Audit Committee — Jillian Evanko: Ms. Jillian Evanko was appointed as an Independent Director and member of the Audit Committee.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Honeywell International Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to…
Other Events Honeywell International Inc. (the “Company”) is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K to recast historical segment information as set forth in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 17, 2026 (“Original Report”). As previously disclosed and as reflected in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026, effective the first quarter of 20…
Other Events Honeywell Debt Tender Offers On March 20, 2026, Honeywell International Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Honeywell”), issued a press release announcing the results, as of 5:00 p.m., New York City time on March 19, 2026, of its previously announced tender offers to purchase for cash certain of the existing debt securities issued by Honeywell (the “Tender Offers”). A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. In addition, on March 20,…