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HLX
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$9.74-0.31%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, HLX trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If HLX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Market cap
- $1.44B
- Employees
- 2,212
- IPO date
- 1996-09-04
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$8.22consensus
Range $3.08 – $16.59
vs price: +18% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$12.34consensus
Range $12.34 – $12.34
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $9.74 HLX trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $8.32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.1x
peer 1.2x · own history 1.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
17%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$8.32
range $3.08 – $17.07
WhyValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
36th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 12.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
96th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -13.9% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.08 (-13.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$177.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$485.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,083.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for updates on the divestiture of Alliance group
Why it matters: Successful divestiture could improve focus and financial health. It is a key growth priority.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Announcement of the successful sale of the Alliance group.
Disproves:Reports show problems or failure in the sale process.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting HLX and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HLX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit HLX and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If HLX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping HLX and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on April 22, 2026, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc., a Minnesota corporation (“ Parent ”), Odyssey Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and direct, wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Parent Sub ”), Hercules Sub LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and direct, wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ LLC Sub ”), and Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agree…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.