Reading HIG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HIG free→Reading HIG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HIG free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits may not be strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from HIG and the performance of sector bellwethers like BRK-B and AIG, as these could influence HIG's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $129.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $130 HIG trades at 9× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $149 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.32 → $3.24 (-2.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,188.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in core earnings growth may show weaker business performance.
Confirms:Q2 core earnings growth is reported below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 core earnings growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HIG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) and Wellington Management Company LLP (“Wellington”) announced that they had reached a definitive agreement under which Wellington Investment Advisors Holdings, LLP, Wellington’s corporate parent, will acquire the Company’s Hartford Funds business (“Hartford Funds”). Under the terms of the transaction, Wellington will operate Hartford Funds and serve as investment advisor to all funds following closing. The tran…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HIG Hartford (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | low |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining high core earnings and return on equity through disciplined underwriting and strategic investments.
Emphasize generating strong cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives and shareholder returns.
Continue investments in innovation and technology to enhance business processes and market differentiation.
Why it matters: Higher inflation can raise costs for Hartford. This may hurt how much money they make.
Confirms:CPI reported above 3% for April 2026.
Disproves:CPI reported below 3% for April 2026.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show job losses. This can reduce demand for insurance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims were above 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims were below 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: Lower GDP growth may mean less economic activity. This can hurt Hartford's insurance business.
Confirms:GDP growth reported below 2% in the second estimate for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported above 2% in the second estimate for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Slower premium growth may mean challenges in the market.
Confirms:Business Insurance premium growth was below 5% in Q2.
Disproves:Business Insurance premium growth was above 5% in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026 , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued (i) a news release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026, and (ii) its Investor Financial Supplement (“IFS”) relating to its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the news release and the IFS are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by referenc…