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HGV
Hilton Grand VacationsNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$50.78-0.74%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, especially how major players in the Consumer Discretionary sector perform. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Resorts & Casinos
- Market cap
- $3.97B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-03-02
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$50.89consensus
Range $46.44 – $73.16
vs price: -0% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$121.73consensus
Range $62.89 – $203.01
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $51 HGV trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $51 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $40–$55. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.9x
peer 15.8x · own history 26.4x
Premium
1.1x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
0%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$50.68
range $46.58 – $73.05
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
95th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
69th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -10.3% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.21 → $1.09 (-10.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.7% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$390.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,848.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for changes in credit agreement terms
Why it matters: Changes in credit terms can impact financial flexibility. It affects growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Credit agreement terms become more favorable for HGV.
Confirms the other:Credit agreement terms worsen or become more restrictive.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HGV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like LVS, MGM, and WYNN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting HGV and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for HGV and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If HGV reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like LVS, MGM, and WYNN start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping HGV and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits HGV and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (the “Company”), and certain entities managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (the “Selling Stockholders”), entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the “Representative”), as representative of the several underwriters (the “Underwriters”), in connection with the offer and sale by the Selling Stockholders (the “Offering”) of 5,0…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.