Reading HCSG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HCSG free→Reading HCSG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HCSG free→NASDAQIndustrialsMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Compared with sector peers, HCSG trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 HCSG trades at 23× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $22–$27. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.22 (-5.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,988.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader industry environment. The recent financial performance is neutral, reflecting a stable but unremarkable trend in earnings.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Results will show if the company is on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HCSG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing its earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference to this Current Report. The information furnished herein, including Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$22.00 – $27.00 (median $24.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HCSG Healthcare Services Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2026.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is a management priority. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The sector is in a maturing phase. Any improvement could help HCSG's growth.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 6% after June.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 3% after June.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows good cost management. This is key for making more money overall.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 exceeds $40M.
Disproves:Operating income in Q2 falls below $30M.