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GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc.NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$72.19-1.16%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Market cap
- $3.15B
- Employees
- 620
- IPO date
- 2006-12-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $72.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$83.46consensus
Range $69.90 – $106.56
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$49.98consensus
Range $47.95 – $52.00
vs price: +44% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $72 GRBK trades at 11× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.6x
peer 15.8x · own history 10.2x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast -4%
Our fair value
$83.46
range $69.62 – $107.85
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
78th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
9th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -3.1% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.39 (-3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,399.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for restated financial results to be filed
Why it matters: The filing will clarify past revenue reporting issues. This impacts investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company filed new financial results. These fix earlier mistakes in revenue.
Disproves:No filing occurs by the next earnings date on July 29, 2026.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRBK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and LEN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting GRBK and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GRBK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-10-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GRBK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-10-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and LEN start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping GRBK and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GRBK and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-112d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c): On June 8, 2026, Green Brick Partners, Inc. (the “Company”), appointed Eric Park to serve as the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Park will be assuming the role of principal accounting officer. Mr. Park, 37, has served as the Company’s Vice President, Corporate Controller since February 2024, where he led the effo…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.