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GOOD
Gladstone Commercial Corp.NASDAQReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
$12.54-0.87%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from GOOD and the performance of sector bellwethers like VICI, WPC, and BNL. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Diversified
- Market cap
- $617.64M
- Employees
- 75
- IPO date
- 2003-11-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$21.00consensus
Range $15.20 – $23.20
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$28.24consensus
Range $24.01 – $28.67
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $13, GOOD's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 78× p/e (5.3× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-36% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $20 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
78.4x
peer 14.8x · own history —
Premium
5.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-36%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$19.73
range $14.57 – $21.52
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
82nd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.headwind-3.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,538.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GOOD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GOOD and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like VICI, WPC, and BNL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting GOOD and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GOOD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-18), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GOOD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-18), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VICI, WPC, and BNL start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping GOOD and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.