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General MillsNYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$34.51+2.04%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GIS cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $18.05B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1928-06-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-01
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$54.96consensus
Range $43.40 – $60.76
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$25.59consensus
Range $23.04 – $26.51
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $35 GIS trades at 8× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $55 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $30–$53. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.9x
peer 13.5x · own history 15.0x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-37%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$54.54
range $42.21 – $60.76
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
53rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
13th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the broad stock market.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish12 analysts, 19% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.80. 0 raised, 8 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 19% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$260.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,793.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation rose by 10.2 points (from 70.2 to 80.4).
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for adjusted EPS decline at 16% or worse
Why it matters: A decline of this size would confirm ongoing challenges in profitability. It reflects how well the company manages costs and sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported down 16% or more year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS declines less than 16% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-139h agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Organic net sales guidance down 1.5% to 2%
Volume declines threaten organic net sales guidance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If GIS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GIS and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If GIS cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KHC, HRL, and MKC start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), GIS and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
- If GIS misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -12% on the 2026-02-28 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 5.02
Chief Operating Officer — Dana M. McNabb: Ms. McNabb was promoted to Chief Operating Officer and elected to the Board.
Executive changepositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.