Reading GILD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GILD free→Reading GILD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GILD free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may pose challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include GILD's potential to raise guidance next quarter and the performance of sector bellwethers like LLY and JNJ. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $125.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $126 GILD trades at 15× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $137 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $122–$180. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-6.86 → $-6.79 (+1.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 20 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.6% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,159.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in product sales excluding Veklury shows Gilead's core business strength. It can impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Product sales excluding Veklury increase year over year by more than 8%.
Disproves:Product sales excluding Veklury grow less than 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase product sales excluding Veklury
Supports growth in product sales for Lenacapavir.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Supplemental Indenture On May 20, 2026, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (the “Company”) and Computershare Trust Company, National Association, as successor to Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee” and, together with the Company, the “Parties”), entered into an Eleventh Supplemental Indenture (the “Eleventh Supplemental Indenture”) to the Indenture between the Parties, dated as of March 30, 2011 (the “Base Indenture”). The Eleventh…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$122.00 – $180.00 (median $166.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing product sales excluding Veklury, with a target of $29.4 billion to $29.8 billion for 2026.
Finalize the acquisition of Arcellx to enhance oncology and inflammation portfolios.
Continue to drive growth in overall product sales, targeting $30.0 billion to $30.4 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision on BIC/LEN affects Gilead's HIV portfolio. A positive decision could boost sales.
Confirms:FDA approves BIC/LEN for people with HIV who have low virus levels.
Disproves:FDA rejects or delays the decision on BIC/LEN.
Advances: Increase product sales excluding Veklury
Supports growth in product sales for Lenacapavir.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Gilead Sciences, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Gilead”), announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Gilead has presented certain financial information in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and also on a non-GAAP basis. Management believes this non-GAAP information is useful for investors, when consi…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on February 22, 2026, Gilead entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), among Parent, the Company and Ravens Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Purchaser ”). In accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement, on April 28, 2026, Gilead completed the acquisition of the Company. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions thereof, on March 6, 20…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 28, 2026, Gilead Sciences, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ” or “ Gilead ”), issued a press release announcing the completion of the acquisition of the Arcellx, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein. The information in