Reading GD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GD free→Reading GD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GD free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, GD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $360.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $360 GD trades at 23× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $575 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $371–$435. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.94 → $3.94 (-0.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 4 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$186.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,453.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash conversion shows how well the company turns profits into cash. This affects capital allocation.
Confirms:Cash conversion metrics improve a lot in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Cash conversion metrics decline or remain flat in Q2 earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026
Submarine growth outlook supports EPS guidance for 2026.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, General Dynamics announced its financial results for the quarter ended April 5, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$371.00 – $435.00 (median $400.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2017-Q2, 2017-Q3, 2018-Q3, 2019-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GD General Dynamics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 7.5% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain a strong focus on cash conversion to support financial stability.
Provide and meet EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026 to align with investor expectations.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend per share will stay the same or go up.
Disproves:Management announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: An update on EPS guidance will show how management feels about future earnings. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:Management raises EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026. This is above current estimates.
Confirms the other:Management lowers EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026. This is below current estimates.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may mean better demand for General Dynamics' products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, nearing 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Advances: EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026
Submarine growth outlook supports EPS guidance for 2026.
Advances: EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026
Submarine growth outlook supports EPS guidance for 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026 , General Dynamics announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference.
President — Danny Deep: Danny Deep was promoted to President from Executive Vice President, Global Operations.
Controller — William A. Moss: William A. Moss is retiring and will be succeeded by Dana O. Maisano.