Reading GBX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GBX free→Reading GBX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GBX free→NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that the company's profits are not consistently backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns for investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader industry environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 GBX trades at 10× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $118 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $0.93 (-21.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,698.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Increasing investment in the lease fleet is key for double-digit growth. Progress signals confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Management reports a big increase in lease fleet investment. They aim for double-digit growth.
Disproves:Management shows a slowdown or cutback in lease fleet investment plans.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GBX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 5, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (“Greenbrier”) entered into a Sixth Amendment to Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Sixth Amendment”), with Bank of America, N.A. (“BofA”), as Administrative Agent (the “Facility Agent”), the guarantors party thereto, and the lenders party thereto, which amends that certain Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of September 26, 2018 (as amended prio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Greenbrier aims to increase investment in its lease fleet to achieve double-digit growth in fiscal 2026.
Greenbrier plans a gradual production ramp-up, shifting some deliveries to early fiscal 2027.
Greenbrier aims to maintain its revenue guidance between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or changing the revenue guidance of $2.7B to $3.2B shows stable growth. It shows management's trust in the business outlook.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance remains within the $2.7B to $3.2B range during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers revenue guidance to below $2.7B. This shows weaker performance.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant To the extent required by