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FTRE
FortreaNASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$16.48-2.31%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FTRE trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on whether FTRE cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $1.55B
- Employees
- 14,300
- IPO date
- 2023-08-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$16.08consensus
Range $9.18 – $19.59
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$63.01consensus
Range $50.72 – $74.17
vs price: -74% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $16 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $16 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$20. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.4x
peer 16.4x · own history 28.7x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
2%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$16.08
range $9.18 – $19.59
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 2% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
70th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral10 analysts, 42% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.18 (+1.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme AI-drug-discovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$238.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$791.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 operating income to improve
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Fortrea is managing costs well. It supports long-term growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 is better than Q1.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 is lower than Q1.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FTRE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting FTRE and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FTRE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FTRE and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If FTRE cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping FTRE and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Fortrea Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, announcing the Company's financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, Item 2.02, including the press release atta…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+10 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.