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FTNT
FortinetNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$146.30+0.85%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, FTNT is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If FTNT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could hurt credibility.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $101.39B
- Employees
- 15,109
- IPO date
- 2009-08-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$79.79consensus
Range $52.60 – $88.67
vs price: +83% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$104.39consensus
Range $76.27 – $111.96
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $146 the market pays 49× p/e — above the 28× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $78 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $70–$155. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
48.6x
peer 28.1x · own history 47.1x
Premium
1.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
88%
our forecast 16%
Our fair value
$77.66
range $48.19 – $88.67
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 88% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
80th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
39th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish38 analysts, 23% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.74 → $0.74 (+0.3% / 30d). 38 raised, 0 cut, 38 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~1.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$169.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,090.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoresmall change
Company momentum fell by 17.0 points (from 76.5 to 59.5).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for cash flow from operations to remain strong
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It helps support growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported at or above $1 billion.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations was less than $900 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FTNT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FTNT and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting FTNT and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If FTNT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping FTNT and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits FTNT and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Fortinet, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-8.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.