Reading FORM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FORM free→Reading FORM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FORM free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple but looks cheaper over a three-year horizon once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major tech bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $139.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $139 FORM trades at 14× p/s — 2.0× the 7× p/s peer median, and above its own 5× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $91 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $118–$175. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 54% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.61 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$274.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$710.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,580.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for FormFactor. A drop below 10% signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FORM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, FormFactor, Inc. (“FormFactor”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 that ended on March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.01 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. This information and the accompanying Exhibit 99.01 shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of FormFactor with the Securities and Exchange Commissi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$118.00 – $175.00 (median $152.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FORM FormFactor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving sequential revenue growth and setting revenue records.
Aim to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows better efficiency. This can help gain investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income growth is above 15%.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below 15%.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This helps make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins reported above 50%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins fall below 50%.
Amendment to the equity incentive plan was approved by stockholders.