Reading FNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNB free→Reading FNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FNB cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 FNB trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.42 (+0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 21.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Net income is a key priority for FNB. Strong results would show growth progress.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $30 million, showing growth from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income is less than $25 million. This shows weak performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Wholesale Banking Officer — David B. Mitchell, II: The Chief Wholesale Banking Officer announced his retirement.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FNB FNB Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net income through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support business operations and growth.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better financial health. It helps with future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities exceeds $151M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops below $151M in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends is key for investor trust and how money is used.
Confirms one read:Dividend payout ratio remains above 50% in Q2 results.
Confirms the other:Dividend payout ratio drops below 40% in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and how well it does.
Confirms one read:New leadership is appointed and aligns with company goals.
Confirms the other:Changes in leadership can create uncertainty. They may also cause problems with strategy.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for FNB.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below the median of 13% in upcoming reports.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above the median of 13%.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows FNB is enhancing its operations and financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by more than 10% from Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops or stays flat compared to Q1.
independent lead director — William B. Campbell: The independent lead director retired from the Board of Directors.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 16, 2026 , F.N.B. Corporation announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing our results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.