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FirstEnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$47.03+0.77%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Utilities companies.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $27.00B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1998-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$55.61consensus
Range $53.25 – $70.41
vs price: -15% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$71.36consensus
Range $67.95 – $90.53
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $47 FE trades at 18× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $51–$56. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.2x
peer 20.4x · own history 16.4x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-15%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$55.61
range $53.25 – $69.39
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
45th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
84th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish8 analysts, 53% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.59 (+1.8% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.8% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · -7.9% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$154.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,558.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 Core Earnings guidance maintenance
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows trust in earnings. It gives investors confidence about future results.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms that 2026 Core Earnings guidance stays the same during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts the 2026 Core Earnings guidance.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FE and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting FE and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FE cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping FE and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2024d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on March 25, 2024, FirstEnergy Corp. (“FirstEnergy” or the “Company”), FirstEnergy Transmission, LLC, a majority-owned subsidiary of FirstEnergy that primarily owns controlling equity interests of certain of FirstEnergy’s transmission assets (“FET”), and North American Transmission Company II L.P., FirstEnergy’s joint venture partner in FET and a controlled investment vehicle entity of Brookfield Super-Core Infrastructure Pa…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.