Reading FDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDX free→Reading FDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDX free→NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FDX is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $338.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $338 FDX trades at 17× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $536 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $155–$479. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.39 → $3.89 (-11.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -18.2% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 15.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$271.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,539.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The spin-off is a key part of FedEx's strategy to unlock value. It could impact operations and financials significantly.
Confirms:The spin-off is done. There were no big problems in operations.
Disproves:There are delays or issues in the spin-off that affect FedEx's operations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Achieve $1B in cost reductions
Cost reductions may impact operational efficiency and morale.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director and Chief Operating Officer, United States and Canada — Stephen E. Gorman and John A. Smith: Both individuals resigned in connection with the Spin-Off to take up new roles at FedEx Freight.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$155.00 – $479.00 (median $372.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | moderate |
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Implement transformation initiatives to achieve over $1 billion in cost reductions.
Limit capital expenditures to no more than $4.1 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Complete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Why it matters: When key leaders leave, it can change FedEx's plans and how it works.
Confirms:New leaders are appointed and share a clear plan for the future.
Disproves:New leaders may bring uncertainty. This could lead to issues in operations.
Why it matters: Spending on capital affects future growth and efficiency. Sticking to the budget shows control.
Confirms:FedEx reports capital spending at or below $4.1 billion for FY 2026.
Disproves:FedEx says it will spend over $4.1 billion on capital for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good management. It also boosts investor trust.
Confirms:Management says they have met or are close to the $1 billion cost cut goal.
Disproves:Management reports big challenges in reaching the cost cut goal.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important for making more money and helping the spin-off succeed.
Confirms:FedEx is making progress towards the $1B cost cut goal. This shows better efficiency.
Disproves:FedEx has problems reaching the cost cut goal or faces delays in making changes.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Immediately prior to the consummation of the Spin-Off, FedEx Freight was a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. Effective as of 12:01 a.m., Central Time, on June 1, 2026 (the “Effective Time”), the Company completed the Spin-Off through the distribution by FedEx of 80.1% of the outstanding shares of FedEx Freight common stock on a pro rata basis to the holders of FedEx common stock. Each FedEx stockholder received one share of FedEx Freig…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . Election of New Director On June 8, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of FedEx Corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”) elected Mark A. Edmunds as a director, effective immediately. The Board also appointed Mr. Edmunds as Chair of its Audit and Finance Committee and member of its Cyber and Technology Oversight Committee. A copy of FedEx’s p…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, FedEx Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”) completed its spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“FedEx Freight”), into a new, publicly traded company (the “Spin-Off”). FedEx, or subsidiaries thereof, have entered into the following agreements with FedEx Freight, or subsidiaries thereof, in connection with the Spin-Off in order to govern the ongoing relationship between the…
Other Events. In connection with the Spin-Off, FedEx Freight paid a cash dividend of approximately $4.1 billion to the Company prior to the Effective Time from the proceeds of the $3.7 billion senior notes offering completed in February 2026 and borrowings under its delayed-draw term loan facility. On June 1, 2026, FedEx issued a press release announcing the completion of the Spin-Off. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.