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Freeport-McMoRanNYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$68.41+3.12%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Copper
- Market cap
- $92.64B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$55.44consensus
Range $48.08 – $70.66
vs price: +23% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$166.72consensus
Range $101.50 – $174.39
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $68 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 25× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $55 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $58–$77. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
32.9x
peer 25.5x · own history 26.7x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
23%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$55.44
range $47.29 – $70.93
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
66th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
33rd pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish0 positive, 2 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.57. 2 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$236.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$475.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,489.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 copper sales to meet or exceed 690 million pounds
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this sales target shows recovery from delays at Grasberg. It shows strong operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 copper sales reported at or above 690 million pounds.
Disproves:Q2 copper sales reported below 690 million pounds.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FCX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SCCO and IE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting FCX and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FCX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FCX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SCCO and IE start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping FCX and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits FCX and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2024d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) and PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), a subsidiary of FCX, as borrowers, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, Bank of America, N.A., as syndication agent, and each of the lenders and issuing banks party thereto entered into a new revolving credit agreement (the New Revolving Credit Facility). The New Revolving Credit Facility replaced FCX’s prior $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit f…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.