Reading FCN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCN free→Reading FCN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCN free→NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The top items to watch include guidance changes, as a cut could have a meaningful negative impact, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $158.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $159 FCN trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $210 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.26 → $2.26 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,314.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report is crucial after the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth returning to at least 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue decline or another earnings miss.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FCN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 3, 2026, the Board authorized an additional $370.0 million to repurchase shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”), pursuant to its stock repurchase program initially authorized by the Board in the amount of $100.0 million on June 2, 2016, which was increased by an additional (i) $100.0 million on May 18, 2017, (ii) $100.0 million on December 1, 2017, (iii) $100.0 million on February 21, 2019, (iv) $100.0 million on Febru…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Research & Consulting Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FCN FTI Consulting | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
VRSK Verisk Analytics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EFX Equifax | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TRU TransUnion | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
FTI Consulting reaffirms its full year 2026 revenue guidance range of $3.940 billion to $4.100 billion.
FTI Consulting reaffirms its full year 2026 EPS guidance range of $8.90 to $9.60.
FTI Consulting is addressing the earnings miss reported in the first quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows that management believes in growth. This can help calm investors.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws full year 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: How management deals with the earnings miss can impact investor trust. It can also affect future results.
Confirms one read:Management provides a clear plan to address the Q1 earnings miss in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management does not give a good explanation or plan for the Q1 earnings miss.
Why it matters: The recent material impairment could signal deeper issues. Investors need to see if this trend continues.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows more details on losses or negative changes.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows no new impairments and a positive outlook.
Why it matters: The Industrials sector is in a maturing phase. Changes could impact FTI Consulting's growth outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, showing a positive change.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows confidence in making money. This can help the stock.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 EPS guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws full year 2026 EPS guidance.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, FTI Consulting, Inc. (“FTI Consulting” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release (including accompanying financial tables) (the “Press Release”) is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference herein. The Company also held a conference call on April 30, 2026 to announce finan…
Regulation FD Disclosure. In the Press Release and Presentation and during the call, FTI Consulting may have used or discussed information derived from consolidated and segment financial information that may not be presented in its financial statements or prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”). Certain of these measures are considered “non-GAAP financial measures” under rules promulgated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the…