Reading FBRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FBRT free→Reading FBRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FBRT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is neutral, indicating some challenges in profitability. Management's track record is also neutral, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns among investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while the company is priced about typical compared with sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.35 the market pays 12× p/e — above the 9× p/e peer median but in line with its own 12× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $9.48 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.26 (-3.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$248.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,349.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement shows if the company can maintain its payout. A stable dividend is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:The company declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.20 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.20 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FBRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and supplemental slide presentation reporting the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and supplemental slide presentation are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share as a key capital allocation strategy.
Continue capital allocation efforts through securitization transactions.
Continue share repurchase program to enhance book value per share.
Why it matters: Share repurchases can boost book value and signal management's confidence in the stock. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:The company repurchases at least $10 million worth of shares within the next quarter.
Disproves:The company does not repurchase any shares in the next quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 15, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), a consolidated subsidiary of Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”), BSPRT 2026-FL13 Issuer, LLC (the “Issuer”), closed an approximately $880.4 million commercial real estate mortgage securitization transaction, and sold approximately $778.1 million of the securitization’s notes in a private placement. The notes were issued pursuant to an indenture (the “Indenture”), dated as of the Closing Date, by a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The Notes have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or any state securities laws, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws. The net pr…