Reading F? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track F free→Reading F? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track F free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which adds risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 F trades at 9× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$17. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.34 (-5.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 8 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.7% above current price.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$290.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,231.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may show confidence in Ford's money situation.
Confirms:Ford announces more share buybacks beyond the current plan.
Disproves:Ford suspends or reduces the share buyback program.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for F yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement .
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$14.00 – $17.00 (median $15.25) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automobile Manufacturers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
F Ford Motor Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GM General Motors | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RIVN Rivian Automotive Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
XPEV XPeng Inc | — | — | elevated |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ford aims to increase its adjusted EBIT guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Ford plans to maintain its capital expenditures within the set guidance range for 2026.
Ford aims to achieve its adjusted free cash flow target for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending is important for Ford's growth and investment plans.
Confirms one read:Ford reports capital spending staying at or above current levels.
Confirms the other:Capital spending drops well below current levels.
Why it matters: Meeting the cash flow target would show Ford's financial health and efficiency.
Confirms:Ford reports adjusted free cash flow meeting or exceeding the target.
Disproves:Adjusted free cash flow falls short of the target.
Other Events . As previously disclosed, on December 13, 2024, BlueOval SK, LLC (“BOSK”), a joint venture company formed by Ford Motor Company (“Ford” or “Company”), SK On Co., Ltd. (“SK On”), and SK Battery America, Inc. (“SKBA,” a wholly owned subsidiary of SK On) to build and operate an EV battery plant in Tennessee and two EV battery plants in Kentucky, entered into a Loan Arrangement and Reimbursement Agreement (the “BOSK DOE Loan Agreement”) pursuant to which the U.S. Department of Energ…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant .
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . Ford Motor Company (“Ford” or “Company”) hereby incorporates by reference its news release dated April 29, 2026, which is furnished as Exhibit 99 hereto. Beginning at 5:00 p.m. on April 29, 2026, Ford President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House, and other members of Ford’s senior management team will host a conference call to discuss Ford’s first quarter 2026 financial results. Investors may access the…
Chief EV, Digital, and Design Officer — J. Douglas Field: The senior executive is leaving the company after a transition period.