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EQT
EQT CorporationNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$51.94+1.45%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If EQT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $32.02B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$53.01consensus
Range $34.35 – $68.64
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$70.52consensus
Range $31.97 – $105.45
vs price: -26% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $52 EQT trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.4x
peer 12.6x · own history 18.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast 45%
Our fair value
$53.01
range $34.71 – $68.64
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 45%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
95th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
50th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -4.0% / 30d, n=20for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.56 (-4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme shale/unconventional.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$351.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,463.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings announcement on July 21
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how strong the company is and its market position.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a significant profit increase year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a significant loss or decline year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EQT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting EQT and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EQT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit EQT and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If EQT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping EQT and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-211mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Today, EQT Corporation ("EQT") issued a news release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. A copy of EQT's news release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"),…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.