Reading ELF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELF free→Reading ELF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELF free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated, while earnings quality is robust. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If ELF cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 ELF trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $55 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $50–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 40%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.73. 1 raised, 12 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 35.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -89.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$613.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show problems in keeping market share and making money.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth reported above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ELF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and regulations, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $100.00 (median $67.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ELF e.l.f. Beauty | — | full | elevated |
USFD US Foods | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Continue to grow market presence across brands, categories, and geographies.
Focus on improving profitability through cost management and operational efficiency.
Drive growth through innovation in product offerings and brand development.
Why it matters: Good results from the rhode brand would prove the acquisition was a smart move.
Confirms:Rhode brand revenue reported above $100 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Rhode brand revenue reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that the company is making more money.
Confirms:Operating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Innovation can make products more appealing and help gain market share.
Confirms one read:New product launches show clear differences and boost sales.
Confirms the other:New products fail to gain traction or show no sales impact.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is stable or declining, it shows market expansion is hard.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth stabilizes or grows year over year above 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth declines year over year below 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can impact sales and growth potential.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending above 3%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline in consumer spending below 0%.
Why it matters: Quickly rising SG&A costs could hurt profits and show bad cost control.
Confirms:SG&A expenses reported growing faster than 20% year over year.
Disproves:SG&A expenses reported growing at or below 20% year over year.