Reading EHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EHC free→Reading EHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EHC free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include the potential for EHC to cut guidance after recently raising it, which could harm credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA, which could influence EHC's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $101 EHC trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 14× p/e peer median. Our $85 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.48. 5 raised, 5 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 45.5% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$218.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,609.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Opening new hospitals is key for growth and shows expansion plans are on track.
Confirms:At least one new hospital opens as planned by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:No new hospitals open by the end of Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, Encompass Health Corporation (the “Company”) completed the issuance and sale of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.875% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”), along with the related guarantees of the Notes by certain of the Company’s subsidiaries (the “Guarantees”), in a private offering. The Notes were issued at par for net proceeds of approximately $491.2 million after deducting the initial purchasers’ discount and…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ENSG Ensign Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding capacity and opening new hospitals to drive revenue growth.
Focus on improving operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Continue to increase dividends as part of capital allocation strategy.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how well a company manages costs. A slowdown may mean problems.
Confirms:Operating income growth is less than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is more than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to showing if organic growth is on track. A drop below this level could signal trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 8% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow trends will indicate how well the company manages its cash.
Confirms:Adjusted free cash flow stays under $200 million for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Adjusted free cash flow exceeds $200 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New debt may affect cash flow and financial flexibility going forward.
Confirms one read:Debt issuance leads to improved cash flow metrics in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Debt issuance results in worsened cash flow metrics in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how management sees growth and profit trends.
Confirms:Management raises Q2 adjusted earnings per share to more than $1.60.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 adjusted earnings per share to less than $1.50.
Why it matters: Slower dividend growth may mean less cash flow or problems with spending money. This matters to investors.
Confirms:Dividend growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Dividend growth reported above 10% year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure required by this item is included in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Encompass Health Corporation (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries, as guarantors (the “Guarantors”), entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representative of the initial purchasers (the “Initial Purchasers”), with respect to a private offering (the “Notes Offering”) by the Company of $500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 5.875% senior notes due 2034 (t…
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release, made pursuant to Rule 135c promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, announcing the pricing of the Notes Offering. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The forward-looking statements contained in this Form 8-K are qualified by the information contained under the heading “ Forward-Looking Statements ” in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 he…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Encompass Health Corporation (“Encompass Health” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the financial results of the Company for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The Company uses “same-store” comparisons to explain the changes in certain performance metrics within its financial statements. Same-store co…