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EFX
EquifaxNYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$163.71+2.59%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated due to a challenging sector backdrop that is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact EFX's performance.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Consulting Services
- Market cap
- $20.31B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-03-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $163.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$223.67consensus
Range $212.56 – $249.28
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$382.74consensus
Range $348.52 – $562.98
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $164 EFX trades at 20× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $222 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.5x
peer 26.4x · own history 30.7x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-26%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$222.50
range $212.56 – $247.94
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
69th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
78th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish19 analysts, 71% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.22 → $2.20 (-1.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 12 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$435.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,093.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk levels. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 2026 revenue growth below 9.3%
Why it matters: Falling below this threshold would signal a slowdown in Equifax's growth momentum.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 reported revenue growth comes in below 9.3%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 reported revenue growth exceeds 11.3%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EFX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRSK, BAH, and FCN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting EFX and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EFX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If EFX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRSK, BAH, and FCN start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping EFX and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits EFX and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-241mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Revolving Credit Agreement On April 23, 2026, Equifax Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries, Equifax Limited, Equifax Canada Co., Equifax International Treasury Services Unlimited Company and Equifax Australia Holdings Pty Ltd (collectively, the “Subsidiary Borrowers”), entered into a Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Company’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of August 25, 2021,…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.