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EcolabNYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$265.41+0.68%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact ECL's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $74.20B
- Employees
- 48,000
- IPO date
- 1995-05-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $265.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$160.73consensus
Range $158.14 – $168.48
vs price: +65% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$255.55consensus
Range $241.59 – $271.70
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $265 the market pays 34× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 37× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $161 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $275–$345. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
34.3x
peer 20.4x · own history 37.3x
Premium
1.7x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
65%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$160.73
range $158.14 – $168.48
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
72nd pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
43rd pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish19 analysts, 74% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.07 → $2.07 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,009.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for Q2 adjusted diluted EPS guidance
Why it matters: Guidance for Q2 EPS shows how well Ecolab can manage rising costs and pricing.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS guidance is above $2.12. This shows strong pricing power.
Confirms the other:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS guidance is below $2.02. This shows struggles with costs.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ECL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and APD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting ECL and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ECL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ECL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and APD start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping ECL and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ECL and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 19, 2026, Ecolab Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., BofA Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several Underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters $1,200,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.600% Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), $900,…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.