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EA
Electronic ArtsNASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$203.27+0.11%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with EA trading below typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. The stock's outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
- Market cap
- $50.77B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-02-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $203.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$145.92consensus
Range $38.25 – $150.73
vs price: +39% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$104.17consensus
Range $81.43 – $152.00
vs price: +95% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $203 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $146 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.8x
peer 18.5x · own history 22.9x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
39%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$145.92
range $37.94 – $150.50
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
98th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
60th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -37.8% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.49 → $0.93 (-37.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 5% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -49.4% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$20.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$114.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $746.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q1 net bookings growth below 5%
Why it matters: Weak growth could mean problems keeping franchise momentum. This is important after Battlefield 6's success.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net bookings growth for Q1 is reported below 5% year-over-year.
Disproves:Net bookings growth for Q1 exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for EA and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, TTWO, and RBLX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting EA and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If EA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, TTWO, and RBLX start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping EA and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Result of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Electronic Arts Inc. ("Electronic Arts" or “EA”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Neither the information in this Form 8-K nor the information in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.